日本央行只能怪他们自己 佟家三少

The Central Bank of Japan began to implement the negative interest rate market, considered the failure of the U.S. stock market center: the exclusive provision of the U.S. stock industry sector, disk before, after, ETF, warrants real time price chart in the tens of thousands of yen notes. REUTERS THOMAS PETER Sina shares Beijing news 16 morning, Reuters reported that the Japanese central bank began to implement negative interest rates on Tuesday, but the financial market has been recognized as a failure. This highlights the fact that there are few options for the bank to stimulate economic growth in the global turmoil. The Central Bank of Japan started implementing an unexpected decision in January 29th, which would charge interest rates of 0.1% on part of the funds held in the central bank, thereby lowering interest rates and encouraging banks, businesses and depositors to spend and invest. Although the negative interest rate policy once pushed down the yen and boosted the rise of Japanese stocks, the trend reversed quickly, and the policy caused investors to rebound. "Andouble economics is a paper tiger, it is more and more obvious," consulting firm Office Niwa chief economist Seiya Nakajima said. "The impact of monetary easing and intervention in exchange rates are similar, the first impact is huge, but then the impact is not as good as once," Nakajima said. Although the central bank officials said that they expected this will have a small impact on the Japanese banking industry, but the bank shares fell sharply, leading to the collapse of global financial stocks, triggering the latest round of global stock market decline. The timing is wrong. To some extent, the Bank of Japan is troubled by the timing, and worries about the slowdown in the economy, the rising interest rates in the United States and the slump in oil prices have led to a global malaise. However, the global stock market response seems to be to the Bank of Japan President Kuroda Higashihiko a head-on blow. Kuroda Higashihiko claimed that his policy was achieving the desired results. "The BoJ’s actions seem to have triggered market volatility," says Yoshinori Shigemi, global market strategist at JP Morgan chase asset management. But the better explanation is that worries over other places weigh over the impact of the BoJ action." In the 11 trading days since the central bank’s Policy Committee announced negative interest rates, the Nikkei index has fallen by a total of 8.5%, despite a sharp rebound on Monday, with the yen rising by 6.5% against the dollar. Japanese bank shares fell by as much as 30% over the same period, because the banks would have difficulty implementing negative interest rates on depositors’ deposits. Standard & Poor’s said negative interest rates could reduce bank profits by 8-15%. 10 year Japanese bond yields in Japan after the central bank announced policy easing in early fall below zero level, a group of seven (G7) in the first 10 year bond yields fell to negative state. However, the yield has rebounded from negative 0.035% last week to 0.090%, and the Japanese market has become more turbulent as investors have no idea how to evaluate reasonable prices. Japan’s 10 year Treasury futures implied volatility JGBATMIV of more than 5%, a two and a half high, and more than three times the level of the beginning of the year. Some market participants say high wave motion 7

日本央行开始实施负利率 市场认为是失败之举 美股行情中心:独家提供全美股行业板块、盘前盘后、ETF、权证实时行情 图中为万元面额日元纸币。 REUTERS THOMAS PETER   新浪美股讯 北京时间16日上午路透报道,日本央行周二刚开始实施负利率,但金融市场已经认定是失败之举。这凸显在全球市场动荡的局面下,该行可用来刺激经济成长的选择已经不多。   日本央行开始实施1月29日做出的意外决定,将对金融机构存放在央行的部分资金收取0.1%的利率,籍此压低利率,鼓励银行、企业和储户消费和投资。   尽管负利率决策一度推低日元,提振日股上涨,但走势很快逆转,政策引起投资者反弹。   “安倍经济学是纸老虎,这越来越明显,”咨询公司Office Niwa的首席经济学家Seiya Nakajima称。   “货币宽松的影响和干预汇率类似,第一次影响巨大,但之后的影响一次不如一次,”Nakajima称。   虽然日本央行高层官员竭力表示,他们预计这只会对日本银行业产生很小的影响,但银行股股价大跌,导致全球金融类股崩跌,从而引发了最新一轮全球股市下跌。   时机不当   从某种程度上说,日本央行是受到时机不当的困扰,因对中国经济放缓、美国升息和油价大跌的担忧业已导致全球市场萎靡不振。不过,全球股市的反应似乎是给日本央行总裁黑田东彦当头一棒。黑田东彦之前声称,他的政策正取得预期效果。   “日本央行的行动看似引发了市场波动,”摩根大通资产管理的全球市场策略师Yoshinori Shigemi说。“但更好的解释是,对其他地方的担忧压过了日本央行行动的影响。”   在日本央行政策委员会宣布实施负利率以来的11个交易日内,日经指数累计下跌了8.5%,尽管周一大幅反弹;日元兑美元则上涨了6.5%。   日本银行类股同期跌幅高达30%,因为银行业将难以对储户的存款实施负利率。标准普尔称,负利率可能将银行营业利润拉低8-15%。   10年期日本公债收益率在日本央行宣布放松政策后起初跌破零水准,成为七国集团(G7)中首个10年期公债收益率跌至负值的国家。不过该收益率已从上周的负0.035%回升到正0.090%,由于投资者已不知如何评估合理价格,日本市场变得更加动荡。   日本10年期公债期货隐含波动率JGBATMIV超过5%,创两年半高位,且是年初水准的三倍以上。部分市场人士表示,高波动率的情况可能持续,日本央行只能怪他们自己。   辩护   黑田东彦对议会表示,近期市场动荡背后的原因并非日本央行负利率政策,而是“过度的厌恶风险情绪”。   日本央行副总裁中曾宏周五在纽约也表示,该央行新推出的三层利率体系“是经审慎设计,旨在缓解对银行获利能力造成激进冲击,同时确保负利率对金融市场价格的影响”。   但一位与日本央行高层仍保持密切联系的前央行官员称,这其实是在说央行政策本身的效果有限。这位前官员补充道,“如果此举目标是要削弱日元,那它完全失败。”   日本央行部分官员私下担心,央行能否继续以目前每年7,000亿美元的购买规模吃下日本公债,因负利率下,金融机构恐打消将日债卖给央行后获得的现金存放起来的念头。日本三家“超级大银行”之前曾争抢日本公债和公司债,虽然只能赚得极其微薄的利息,但没什么风险。   尽管黑田东彦指出日本央行可能将负利率进一步调降,市场人士称,对更多这样的举措能带来什么良效不抱太大期望。(完)   (编译 王丽鑫 汪红英 张若琪 审校 张涛 徐文焰 许娜)(路透中文网) 责任编辑:张玉洁 SF107相关的主题文章: