中国并不会仅仅依赖动用外汇储备来维稳汇率、抵御贬值压力 坐井观天的意思

The RMB exchange rate stabilization in 6.52 markets is expected to moderate depreciation of 17 onshore and offshore renminbi market, slightly downward, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar were reported in the vicinity of 6.52, but still maintaining stability in the 6.5 line. The market expects that after the central bank intervened in the exchange rate and kept the exchange rate basically stable, the focus of monetary policy will be shifted to the domestic market, and the expected reduction will also appear again. Onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate stabilized at 6.52 RMB, the central parity rate of 17 against the U.S. dollar was 6.5237, down 107 basis points from the previous trading day. The spot reference rate at shore is 6.5264 at 10 a.m.. The spot exchange rate on the shore is basically stable, and the closing price at 16:30 is at 6.5259. It is still close to 6.52 when it comes into the night trading period. Offshore market, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar opened at 6.5168, 6.5170 higher than the previous day’s closing price of 2 basis points, in early trading has been between 6.51 to 6.52 concussion. Intraday, the RMB minimum down to 6.5384, but also basically stable at 6.52, also hovering around 6.52 in the evening. Market judgment, the recent central bank stability and exchange city action, indeed in a period of time to strengthen the stability of the exchange rate. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase, MLF and other liquidity operations before the Spring Festival, partially replacing the RRR function to achieve a stable overall liquidity. The RMB material moderate devaluation devaluation pressure while facing a large current-account surplus, but given the considerable capital controls can be tightened, and decision-makers can still use the foreign exchange reserve currency stability, this year is expected to only moderate depreciation of rmb. The latest January credit figures also show that, although the central bank says it will avoid excessive loosening of monetary policy to ease the pressure of RMB devaluation, the central bank still has the ability to ensure loose credit policy. "This year the central bank will actually tighten capital controls and allow periodic depreciation of the exchange rate, but most of the time it is going to be stable." UBS Securities economist Wang Tao said yesterday that the annual foreign exchange reserves will not fall below $2 trillion and 800 billion, and the dollar will remain unchanged for the RMB exchange rate of 6.8 at the end of the year. It is worth noting that China foreign exchange reserves of US $3 trillion and 200 billion more than $2 trillion of debt is G10, where more than half of U.S. Treasury bonds, while the remaining part is the United States agency debt, overseas stocks, corporate bonds and other assets, including through third party fund managers indirectly held by the. "Because China’s foreign exchange reserve assets scale is too large, large-scale sell-off will lead to price volatility. More importantly, China will not rely solely on the use of foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the exchange rate and resist the pressure of devaluation." Wang Tao said that, as president Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out in a recent interview, the decision makers will tighten capital controls and increase exchange rate volatility in practice. At present, the central bank since January stable exchange rate action can indeed strengthen the stability of the exchange rate for a period of time. However, market participants also suggest that the upward trend of domestic monetary base gap is obvious

人民币汇率趋稳于6.52 市场预计全年将温和贬值   17日在岸、离岸市场上,人民币微幅下行,人民币对美元汇率均报于6.52附近,但仍维稳于6.5一线。市场预计,在央行出手干预汇率、保持汇率基本稳定后,货币政策重点将会转向国内,预计降准也将会重新出现。   在岸、离岸人民币汇率稳于6.52   人民币对美元汇率中间价17日报于6.5237,较上一交易日下行107个基点。在岸即期参考汇率,上午10点报于6.5264。全天在岸即期汇率基本稳定,16:30分收盘价报于6.5259,进入夜盘交易时段,仍稳于6.52附近。   离岸市场上,人民币对美元汇率开于6.5168,较更早一日收盘价6.5170微幅上行2个基点,早盘时一直在6.51至6.52之间震荡。盘中,人民币最低下行至6.5384,但也基本稳于6.52,晚间也在6.52附近徘徊。   市场判断,近期央行维稳汇市行动,确实能够在一段时期内加强汇率的稳定程度。央行在春节前连续进行逆回购、MLF等流动性操作,部分代替降准功能,实现流动性总体平稳。   人民币全年料温和贬值   虽然面临较大的贬值压力,但鉴于经常账户顺差可观、资本管制可以收紧,且决策层仍然可以通过动用外汇储备维稳汇率,预计今年全年人民币仅温和贬值。   最新公布的1月信贷数据也表明,虽然央行表示会避免过度放松货币政策以舒缓人民币贬值压力,但央行仍然有能力确保信贷政策宽松。   “今年央行会在实际上收紧资本管制,同时允许汇率出现阶段性贬值,但大部分时间趋于稳定。” 瑞银证券特约经济学家汪涛昨日说,维持全年外汇储备不会跌破2.8万亿美元、年底美元对人民币汇率为6.8的预测不变。   值得注意的是,中国3.2万亿美元的外汇储备中有超过2万亿美元是G10国债,其中一半以上是美国国债,而剩余部分则是美国机构债、海外股票、企业债和各种其他资产,包括通过第三方资金管理人所间接持有的部分。   “由于中国外汇储备资产规模过于庞大、大规模抛售会引发价格动荡。更为重要的是,中国并不会仅仅依赖动用外汇储备来维稳汇率、抵御贬值压力。”汪涛说,如周小川行长在最近的一次访谈中所指出的,决策层还会在实际操作中收紧资本管制、同时增加汇率波动性。   目前来看,央行1月以来维稳汇率的行动确实能够在一段时期内加强汇率的稳定程度。然而,市场人士也建议,考虑到国内基础货币投放缺口上行趋势明显,短期的流动性操作难以完全有效替代降准。因此,在央行出手干预汇率、保持汇率基本稳定后,货币政策重点将会转向国内,预计降准也将会重新出现。   不过,瑞银认为,鉴于经济持续下行、资本大规模外流、通缩压力加剧,今年央行会再降息两次来降低企业融资成本,并通过多次降准应对资本外流。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: